The U.S. Has a Major Gunpowder Problem

The Ukraine War Has Sparked a Global Gunpowder Shortage. Here’s How It’s Affecting Ammo Supply and Ballistic Performance in the USA.

by Richard Baimbridge

The U.S. ammunition market is currently grappling with a serious gunpowder shortage, which has far-reaching implications for hunters, competitive shooters, law enforcement and reloaders. The shortage has emerged as a result of several intersecting global and domestic factors, driving up prices, limiting supply, and in some cases affecting velocity specs advertised on the box.

The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel have created a massive demand for ammunition and explosives. These conflicts have strained the production of critical components like nitrocellulose, one of the primary ingredients in gunpowder, as manufacturers prioritize military contracts over civilian markets. China, the world’s largest producer of nitrocellulose, has increased its sales to its ally Russia, contributing to the scarcity of the vital component in the USA.

The U.S. has only one main source for nitrocellulose and one major gunpowder manufacturer. Primers and powder have seen a 5-10% price increase in 2024, with limited availability.

In addition, recent explosions, such as the one at the Goex Industries black powder production plant at Camp Minden, Louisiana last year, have also disrupted domestic production. These events reveal the vulnerability of the domestic gunpowder supply chain. While there is currently proposed legislation to invest nearly a billion dollars into expanding both gunpowder and nitrocellulose production in the U.S., shortages are likely to continue for at least the next year.

Market Consolidation

A handful of companies dominate gunpowder production in North America, leaving the industry open to supply bottlenecks. Hodgdon Powder Company owns several brands, and any production delays ripple through the entire market.

In October 2023, Vista Outdoor announced a plan to be sold to Czechoslovak Group (CSG), a Czech arms manufacturer. Should CSG complete its purchase of Vista, 75% of fully operational domestically owned primer manufacturers would come under the control of a single foreign entity. CSG’s proposed acquisition of Vista Outdoor is currently under review by U.S. regulators to determine if foreign acquisitions pose a risk to national security. And the plans still have to meet shareholder approval at their Nov. 25 shareholder meeting this year.

The powder shortage is hitting both the reloading community and factory ammunition buyers, alike. Vista Outdoor, which owns brands like Federal, Remington, and CCI, announced price hikes of 1–10% across numerous ammunition types starting in 2024. Reloading supplies, particularly primers and powders, are becoming scarce, driving hand-reloaders to stockpile whenever supplies are available.

“If you’re using a small-caliber hunting rifle, it’s the same gunpowder that’s used for a shell that goes into a tank or a 155mm howitzer that’s being used in greater numbers in Ukraine and the Israel conflict,” says Fred Ferguson from the Public Affairs Office at Vista Outdoor. “So, when those theaters are using more gunpowder, we’re seeing shortages in other parts of the ammunition supply chain – including the commercial and law enforcement side.”  

Cartridge Performance and Other Downstream Effects

For hunters and competitive shooters, the situation poses a serious dilemma. Factory-loaded ammunition prices are increasing, while components for reloading are harder to find, leaving many without affordable options. Smaller ammunition manufacturers, which rely heavily on consistent gunpowder supplies, are also struggling to meet demand, leading to production slowdowns.

The shortage is also affecting cartridge performance, including the much-hyped new 7mm PRC which boasts a factory-load muzzle velocity of 3000 FPS, yet has fallen short of that in several ballistics tests on platforms like YouTube gun channels. This has led to skepticism of the new cartridge, as well as its producer Hornady, which has countered that the propellant used during the initial production and ballistics testing of 7mm PRC (introduced just two years ago) is now no longer unavailable, and may result in reduced velocity.

Industry experts warn that the gunpowder shortage might persist well into 2025 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the time needed to ramp up production. Some companies are exploring alternative sources or increasing imports, but these efforts are not expected to resolve the shortage quickly. This uncertainty has led retailers and consumers to adopt a “buy when available” strategy, further straining the market.

Still, industry experts like Fred Ferguson are optimistic that the government initiative to expand the domestic gunpowder industry will have major long-term benefits not just for U.S. National Security, but for the retail ammunition market, as well.

“The investments from the US Army and the government will help the entire industry, because a stronger supply chain for nitrocellulose will have down-market benefits to companies like ours in the commercial sector,” Ferguson says.

But until that investment kicks in, with two major wars showing no signs of ending any time soon, you can expect the gunpowder drought to continue.  

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