State of the Turkey Union

Turkey Harvests Are Booming in Some Areas while Struggling in Others. So, What the Gobble’s Going On?

by Richard Baimbridge

Depending upon where you stand (literally), wild turkey populations are either booming or in serious trouble. While numbers are strong in some parts of the country, including Texas, North Carolina and Virginia, other areas have seen a precipitous decline in wild turkey poult-per-hen ratios over the past decade – particularly Southeastern states, like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.

In some cases, the ratio has even fallen below the two-poults-per-hen threshold, which is the minimum number necessary to sustain a population. This alarming trend raises some important questions about why it’s happening, and what exactly should be done to get numbers back up again?

Renowned turkey biologist and hunter Dr. Mike Chamberlain says there are a number of factors contributing to turkey population declines in the Southeast — namely, habitat loss and degradation, an increase in predators, and increased hunting pressure.

In his “State of the Wild Turkey” address to the National Wild Turkey Federation back in 2022, Chamberlain painted a bleak picture of the Southeastern turkey population, with multiple charts showing poult-per-hen ratios on a steady and dramatic decline, from the 1980s to the present.

“There’s no question that birds are struggling in some areas, particularly in the Southeast and parts of the Midwest,” Chamberlain says. “We’re not making as many young turkeys as we once were.”

But the data can also be confusing, because while in some cases the harvest numbers are going up, the estimated overall total turkey population is in fact going down. Part of the reason for this contradiction lies in unethical hunting practices, according to Chuck Sykes, Director of Wildlife and Freshwater Fisheries in Alabama, who notes a large increase in the number of citations being written for turkey hunters in that state.

The violations include hunting without a license, adults hunting during youth weekend, hunting prior to the opening of the season and using decoys the first 10 days of the season.

But the biggest violation, according to Sykes, was people cited for turkey hunting with bait. He attributes the sharp rise in this behavior to social media, where hunters are hell-bent on scoring a trophy photo for their Facebook or Instagram pages, despite turkey hunting being a notoriously difficult and fickle pursuit – one where in the past it was very common to come home empty-handed.

Factors Contributing to Declines

The declining turkey populations in the Southeast can be attributed to several interrelated factors, according to wildlife biologists:

1. Habitat Loss: One of the primary drivers of turkey population decline has been habitat loss due to urbanization and intensive agriculture. As natural landscapes are converted for development or monoculture farming, turkeys lose vital nesting and feeding grounds.

2. Predation: Increased populations of predators such as coyotes and raccoons have also affected turkey numbers. Young turkeys, or poults, are particularly vulnerable before reaching maturity, and higher predation rates can drastically reduce their survival chances.

3. Poor Reproduction Rates: High nest predation and habitat degradation lead to lower reproductive success. In many states, studies show that the rate of poult survival has significantly decreased, contributing to a decline in overall turkey populations.

States and wildlife departments have been tackling these problems by taking measures such as adjusting turkey hunting seasons – in some cases shortening them or delaying opening day in order to give more time for nesting and population replacement.

The results, so far, have been promising…

The State of Arkansas, for example, has seen a strong rebound in turkey numbers since 2011 when it shortened its season to 18 days, moved the opening day forward to the third week or April, and instituted a “No Jakes” rule. The same successful results can be seen in Louisiana, which began a statewide program back in 2018 designed to increase plummeting turkey populations by delaying start of the season until the first Saturday of April.  

Chamberlain says the success of these programs is indisputable, but at the same time controversial because they sometimes receive a negative reception from the hunting community. In addition, he says, it often takes years from the time a new policy is introduced before you start to see any significant results.

In a recent 2025 update video made together with The Hunting Public, Chamberlain says that, as a hunter, he’s sympathetic to the concerns of the hunting community, while at the same time he thinks these measures are vital to the future sustainability of turkey hunting in the Southeast.

Looking at the big picture in the State of Alabama, for example, he cites a 30% overall decrease in the number of turkeys harvested since the early 2000s, with 20% of that number unattributed to the decline in the total number of hunters. Part of what makes finding a solution so hard, he says, is the difficulty in getting reliable, up-to-date information on both harvests (as many harvests go unreported) and wild turkey populations, plus the complexity of coordinating and rolling-out statewide programs.

Meanwhile, states like Kentucky have seen upticks in turkey population numbers thanks to successful conservation efforts. The past two years saw harvests of around 35,000 birds, which is over 10% above the previous five-year average. Even California, with its over-development and loss of natural habitat, now has a thriving wild turkey population, estimated to be nearly on par with that of Texas, at about 400,000 birds.

So, while things might seem a bit dire in certain parts of the US, the overall outlook still remains very positive – especially when you go back a few decades when wild turkeys had all but disappeared from much of the country. And, as Chamberlain notes, it’s not just about placing tighter restrictions on hunters.

In fact, he says one of the most serious threats to turkey populations is from predators such as wild boar and coyotes, and that dealing with this issue requires private landowners to take the initiative to create habitats that are conducive to poult survival. That includes better land management, such as clearing/burning underbrush, that allows turkeys to use their most important defense – their eyes.

“You have to give the birds the ability to see,” Chamberlain says. “If it’s up to your waist when you’re walking through it, that’s not turkey habitat.” He notes that many states provide habitat cost-sharing programs, offering financial assistance to private landowners.

In the end, he says, there’s no single solution to the problem. It’s up to all of us to do our part to ensure that the proud tradition turkey hunting has a sustainable future in America.

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